ORI Expects a 7-Quarter High in 2Q, Analyst Sees Limited Impact from Worker Camp Shutdown

ORI is predicted to maintain its momentum in 2Q21, with the chance of setting a new 7-quarter high, with estimated presales of 8,000 million baht, up 22% YoY and 4% QoQ.


Origin Property Public Company Limited (ORI) is predicted to maintain its momentum in 2Q21, with the chance of setting a new 7-quarter high, with estimated presales of 8,000 million baht, up 22% YoY and 4% QoQ.

KTBST Securities (KTBST) holds a “BUY” rating on ORI with a target price of 13.00 baht, which is pegged to 2021E PER of 10x, or +0.5 SD above its 5-yr average. The company said its 2Q21 presales increased +22% YoY, +4% QoQ to 8.0 billion baht, marking the highest level in seven quarters and beating itd forecast. 

ORI has launched several condo projects worth a combined 4.6 billion baht in 1Q-2Q21, of which take-up rate has reached 50-70% of the total project value. The company also recorded strong sales from its inventory, which boosted 1H21 presales by +37% YoY to 15.7 billion baht. This accounted for 54% of KTBST’s 2021E presales forecast of 29.0 billion baht, up +13% YoY. 

KTBST maintains the 2021E transfer projects at 18.0 billion baht (+19% YoY), including its JV, and net profit at 3.2 billion baht (+20%). In 2H21E, the company aims to begin ownership transfers of three condo projects in 3Q21E and one project will follow suit in 4Q21E. As the latter one is a small-size project worth just 400 million baht, any delay should not make a significant impact on 2021E earnings. 

As for the government’s latest shutdown announcement on the worker camps in Bangkok for 30 days, KTBST expects a limited impact as the company should be able to launch condo projects as planned but several SDH/TH projects are likely to delay. 

ORI outperformed the SET Index by 4% over the past three months but underperformed by 5% in one month. The stock will likely remain under pressure from the COVID-19 impact in the near term, but the impressive 1Q21 earnings and the brighter prospects in 2Q-4Q21E, given the company’s substantial backlog that has covered 80% of KTBST’s 2021E revenue forecast, should lend support to the share price in the long term.

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